Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 38.592975 45.668001 53.454638 62.630474 73.116140 84.692611 98.407170
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 29.423806 39.114642 50.828770 65.896824 84.616613 106.950530 135.437591
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 23.987343 34.902848 49.076975 68.536839 94.221907 126.593862 170.050358
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 19.617718 30.892606 46.466699 69.058464 100.410294 141.726271 199.504676
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.687007 26.624185 42.631063 67.054358 102.516287 151.137120 221.612562
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.259171 24.071890 40.731044 67.297329 107.401574 164.267448 249.210237
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.512482 22.246683 39.582079 68.350833 113.310829 178.975676 279.664832
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 8.990144 18.654000 35.111587 63.659506 110.000138 179.884242 290.095895
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.046968 17.668043 34.750373 65.415223 116.658079 195.830722 323.349702
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.883177 16.054478 33.072884 64.736957 119.260601 205.618640 347.720619
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.563721 16.038547 34.221841 68.979129 130.184066 228.921564 393.972146
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.326948 13.904627 31.162794 65.411333 127.604310 230.478936 406.149484
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.818575 13.351207 31.259647 67.993666 136.515554 252.340540 453.779867
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.419161 12.987833 31.729735 71.420406 147.381867 278.445590 510.352483
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.011941 12.513480 31.890684 74.239789 157.346754 303.622075 566.781389
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.486769 11.613635 30.989053 74.797433 163.100907 321.834997 612.449124
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.865694 10.290430 28.915042 72.651835 163.453801 330.488375 642.169362
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.485463 9.538962 28.035253 72.911978 168.456531 347.677474 687.483302
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.203291 9.002586 27.583722 74.039861 175.242019 368.454037 740.088742
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.689744 7.563037 24.592474 69.015933 168.947656 364.464833 748.063266
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.531584 7.273208 24.564066 70.896548 177.237837 388.483780 808.044791
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.302149 6.649726 23.511087 70.170092 179.848739 401.672537 848.624237
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.265700 6.754135 24.541985 74.712433 194.313540 438.760283 935.438893